Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 31 | 30.3 | 9.6% | 326 | 2.83% |
| 10-19 | 44 | 43.4 | 15.9% | 539 | 3.96% |
| 20-29 | 62 | 59.6 | 21.8% | 738 | 3.53% |
| 30-39 | 72 | 57.7 | 18.3% | 620 | 4.56% |
| 40-49 | 41 | 42.7 | 13.7% | 465 | 4.44% |
| 50-59 | 36 | 31.4 | 10.4% | 351 | 2.8% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 18.7 | 6.3% | 214 | 1.86% |
| 70+ | 16 | 12.1 | 3.9% | 131 | 1.25% |
| All ages | 318 | 296.0 | 100% | 3386 | 3.24% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 | 24853 | 69452 | 645 | 169 | 3332 |
| Jan 15 | 25058 | 69591 | 645 | 169 | 3190 |
| Jan 16 | 25290 | 69667 | 646 | 169 | 3100 |
| Jan 17 | 25492 | 69878 | 648 | 169 | 3028 |
| Jan 18 | 25835 | 70166 | 651 | 169 | 3088 |
| Jan 19 | 26270 | 70527 | 652 | 170 | 3522 |
| Jan 20 | 26588 | 70798 | 652 | 170 | 3386 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 | 15776 | 40160 | 626 | 153 | 1593 |
| Jan 15 | 15877 | 40254 | 626 | 153 | 1631 |
| Jan 16 | 15965 | 40298 | 628 | 153 | 1631 |
| Jan 17 | 16076 | 40384 | 630 | 154 | 1610 |
| Jan 18 | 16292 | 40534 | 630 | 154 | 1773 |
| Jan 19 | 16524 | 40685 | 633 | 154 | 1991 |
| Jan 20 | 16734 | 40813 | 637 | 155 | 2057 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 24 | 15.3 | 7.8% | 161 | 2.08% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 22.9 | 13.7% | 282 | 3.35% |
| 20-29 | 28 | 23.1 | 16.5% | 339 | 4.77% |
| 30-39 | 38 | 32.3 | 19.6% | 404 | 4.81% |
| 40-49 | 41 | 25.9 | 16.8% | 345 | 4.45% |
| 50-59 | 32 | 20.0 | 12% | 247 | 2.55% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 11.1 | 7.4% | 153 | 1.82% |
| 70+ | 6 | 10.3 | 6.1% | 125 | 1.76% |
| All ages | 210 | 160.9 | 100% | 2057 | 3.18% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 | 11671 | 26733 | 491 | 122 | 872 |
| Jan 15 | 11764 | 26793 | 493 | 122 | 868 |
| Jan 16 | 11827 | 26843 | 494 | 122 | 831 |
| Jan 17 | 11887 | 26874 | 496 | 122 | 809 |
| Jan 18 | 11978 | 26956 | 496 | 122 | 844 |
| Jan 19 | 12082 | 27055 | 497 | 123 | 898 |
| Jan 20 | 12194 | 27138 | 499 | 123 | 961 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 7.1 | 8.1% | 78 | 1.44% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 13.9 | 15.5% | 149 | 2.74% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 11.9 | 14.3% | 137 | 3.03% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 16.6 | 17.6% | 169 | 3.11% |
| 40-49 | 19 | 11.7 | 13.9% | 134 | 2.69% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 10.4 | 13.1% | 126 | 1.86% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 8.6 | 9.6% | 92 | 1.45% |
| 70+ | 14 | 7.4 | 7.9% | 76 | 1.2% |
| All ages | 112 | 87.6 | 100% | 961 | 2.12% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 | 27780 | 83247 | 889 | 145 | 4260 |
| Jan 15 | 28093 | 83500 | 889 | 145 | 4174 |
| Jan 16 | 28345 | 83592 | 890 | 145 | 4014 |
| Jan 17 | 28645 | 83964 | 893 | 146 | 3885 |
| Jan 18 | 29151 | 84427 | 907 | 146 | 4069 |
| Jan 19 | 29788 | 85012 | 912 | 147 | 4587 |
| Jan 20 | 30327 | 85515 | 914 | 149 | 4887 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 86 | 59.3 | 13.2% | 645 | 5.46% |
| 10-19 | 107 | 80.6 | 19.3% | 945 | 5.71% |
| 20-29 | 77 | 64.6 | 18.2% | 891 | 4.19% |
| 30-39 | 99 | 70.3 | 16.3% | 797 | 5.86% |
| 40-49 | 67 | 56.6 | 13.5% | 662 | 4.87% |
| 50-59 | 48 | 39.9 | 9.9% | 485 | 3.42% |
| 60-69 | 30 | 23.9 | 5.6% | 275 | 1.94% |
| 70+ | 25 | 18.1 | 3.8% | 187 | 1.44% |
| All ages | 539 | 413.1 | 100% | 4887 | 4.13% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 | 86128 | 468494 | 2334 | 433 | 11522 |
| Jan 15 | 87004 | 469354 | 2339 | 433 | 11722 |
| Jan 16 | 98994 | 470413 | 2341 | 433 | 22913 |
| Jan 17 | 101917 | 471857 | 2351 | 433 | 25180 |
| Jan 18 | 103298 | 473441 | 2362 | 434 | 26461 |
| Jan 19 | 106363 | 475310 | 2389 | 439 | 28729 |
| Jan 20 | 107826 | 476769 | 2401 | 443 | 28147 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 230 | 360.7 | 11.6% | 3276 | 5.45% |
| 10-19 | 275 | 510.7 | 15.6% | 4391 | 6.18% |
| 20-29 | 236 | 676.0 | 20.2% | 5675 | 5.46% |
| 30-39 | 254 | 648.6 | 18.9% | 5315 | 6.94% |
| 40-49 | 195 | 505.4 | 14.5% | 4089 | 6.23% |
| 50-59 | 139 | 350.0 | 10.1% | 2844 | 4.34% |
| 60-69 | 73 | 192.7 | 5.6% | 1580 | 2.89% |
| 70+ | 62 | 120.7 | 3.4% | 944 | 1.92% |
| All ages | 1463 | 3369.6 | 100% | 28147 | 5.15% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 | 1322541 | 3944075 | 57387 | 11712 | 152411 |
| Jan 15 | 1338214 | 3954446 | 57484 | 11712 | 152224 |
| Jan 16 | 1380799 | 3960777 | 57554 | 11712 | 178890 |
| Jan 17 | 1400338 | 3969582 | 57823 | 11755 | 185396 |
| Jan 18 | 1415098 | 3982324 | 58048 | 11825 | 195022 |
| Jan 19 | 1433225 | 3995206 | 58273 | 11867 | 205404 |
| Jan 20 | 1446207 | 4006265 | 58445 | 11946 | 199666 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1533 | 1893.4 | 10% | 19884 | 3.1% |
| 10-19 | 2172 | 2777.9 | 14.8% | 29591 | 3.91% |
| 20-29 | 1907 | 3563.1 | 17.4% | 34686 | 4.58% |
| 30-39 | 2208 | 3720.7 | 17.9% | 35674 | 4.71% |
| 40-49 | 1915 | 3071.3 | 14.8% | 29456 | 4.22% |
| 50-59 | 1571 | 2550.4 | 12.3% | 24645 | 3.02% |
| 60-69 | 980 | 1630.7 | 7.9% | 15679 | 2.07% |
| 70+ | 708 | 1041.3 | 4.9% | 9811 | 1.53% |
| All ages | 12982 | 20275.7 | 100% | 199666 | 3.43% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-02-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 12989"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges